| Traditionally,
voter turnout for midterm elections is lower than for
presidential elections, but this year surveys are telling
us that voters are more motivated than in the past. Support
for the Iraq War is at an all-time low, and people are
disenchanted --to put it lightly -- with President George
W. Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress.
For Latino voters, that disenchantment extends to the
way our elected officials have handled the immigration
issue. The questions are: Are they upset enough to show
up at the polls, and if they do show up, how will they
vote?
One thing we know for sure is that the Latino vote is
growing and could make a difference in key races. According
to a recent study by the Pew Hispanic Center, there are
now 17 million Hispanics eligible to vote -- that's 7
percent more than in 2004. Although nationally they comprise
only 8.6 percent of all eligible voters, the percentages
are much higher in states like California, New Mexico,
Texas and New Jersey.
As in every election, the only way to remotely predict
how the electorate will behave is by taking a look at
the polls. With Latinos, the core issues continue to be
jobs and the economy, education, the war in Iraq, Medicare
and health care. Although immigration is not in the top
five, it is an important symbolic issue.
Latino voters are U.S. citizens and do not have an immigration
problem, but many feel that attacks against immigrants
are attacks against their own parents, siblings, cousins,
neighbors or friends.
Among the hundreds of thousands who participated in immigrant
marches in the spring were legal residents and U.S. citizens.
Many carried signs that read "Today we march, tomorrow
we vote."
Democracy Corps' survey of Latino voters in early June
showed that after those marches, 62 percent of Latino
voters felt more sympathetic toward immigrants. As a result,
56 percent were less likely to vote for a Republican candidate
because of the immigration issue. In a more recent poll
by the Latino Policy Coalition, eight in 10 Latino voters
said the immigration issue is important in deciding who
to vote for.
But there are other factors to consider that might make
the link between the Latino vote and the immigration issue
harder to predict. Seventy-five percent of Latino voters
are U.S.-born citizens, and about a third of those are
concerned about immigration. Also, there's been a 28 percent
increase of naturalized eligible voters since 2004, and
it is believed they are more motivated to go out and vote
since it is their first opportunity to do so. Naturalized
citizens are more likely to be against a hard-line position
on immigration.
It's still too early to know if the massive voter-registration
campaigns by Hispanic civic organizations have been effective,
but there are concerns among several immigrant-rights
groups about possible voter intimidation. This is based
on a letter in Spanish that was sent out in Orange County,
Calif., a few weeks ago, stating that it is illegal for
immigrants to vote and warning that they could be jailed
or deported if they do so. The letter also warned that
the federal government would use a computer database to
scrutinize voters. Of course, immigrants can vote as soon
as they become citizens.
With so many Republican candidates across the country
using the immigration issue as a scare tactic in their
political ads, the results of the midterm election will
not only tell us just how Latino voters respond, but also
if the American people back the hard-line immigration
attacks.
|